Like everyone, I’ve been thinking a lot about what the future holds for arts and culture. We can’t know anything for sure, but here are my two-yens worth of thoughts on what arts and culture practitioners and professionals might want to contemplate in preparing for the post-COVID world.

Key Points

The arts landscape will be irrevocably changed post-COVID. Artists, who have already been disproportionately harmed by the pandemic, will experience further trials into the foreseeable future. In COVID’s wake, we may see an epochal change in which only the most prominent cultural brand names, digitally savvy and leanest business models survive. In such a scenario, when green shoots finally emerge, most arts practices and arts organisations will be smaller and more nimble.

The avenues to recovery are few, traumatic and uncertain. Building public funding support for the arts will involve tying arts benefits to: political legacy and status markers; symbolic capital, soft power and statecraft; health and wellbeing; helping nations redefine or reassert themselves to provide social cohesion, identity and pride.

Some arts organisations will be under pressure to monetise smaller, but more lucrative niche offerings. There will also be an increased trend towards more digitally focused business models that are leaner in infrastructure and personnel. At one end, we will have prominent, large arts organisations whose brands stand above others and can appeal to a broad base; and at the other end, specialist artists able to produce sufficient digital output to attract enough patronage to support themselves in niche segments. These digitally enabled business models will be able to attract an international audience. Economically rational arts businesses will focus upon higher value patrons at the expense of more numerous, lower fee-paying audience.

At the smaller end, artists will need to identify ways to subsidise their practice and/or scale their digital output sufficient to provide a living, as the ‘conversion ratio’ of people happy to view digital content for free, into paying customers/donors is extremely low.

On the bright side, the pandemic will lead to a greater appreciation of those facets of the arts that were denied us during lockdown – e.g. the social, live and communal, the tactile and the ‘real’ (as opposed to ‘virtual’).

Economic context

The IMF predicts the worst downturn since the Great Depression[1] with the global economy projected to contract by -3 percent in 2020. Many respected economists fear a slow, ‘U’-shaped, recovery (as opposed to a rapid ‘V’-shaped recovery) with some predicting a global depression.[2]
Global recessionary conditions are already here, and most governments that can (e.g. OECD nations) have been using large fiscal stimulus measures to avoid extended or widespread depression. Many of these nations are carrying significant debt levels into this crisis. This is likely to limit the speed of recovery and will mean increased competition for public arts funding.
In the short term, there will be deflation (falling prices of most goods and services) due to falling demand as households and businesses spend less on many things under lockdown, seek to repair damaged balance sheets and lower risk in an uncertain environment. This will especially pertain to discretionary expenditure, including the arts.
This will also impact the creative industries which provide alternative income sources for many artists. Creative industries are generally ‘pro-cyclical’, meaning they go well when the economy goes well, but suffer more during downturns. This means artists will face a double-sided income decrease from their art, and any creative work they do in the broader economy, including art education (see below).
In the medium to longer term, high debt levels from fiscal stimulus combined with loose monetary measures by central banks, raise a concern amongst some notable economists of ‘stagflation’ – inflation with stagnation - last seen in Western economies as a result of the 70’s oil crisis. Inflation acts as a de facto ‘flat tax’ impacting poorer people in society, such as artists, more greatly. In some cases, inflation may metastasise into hyperinflation.
A combination of international border lockdowns, a renewed focus upon domestic self-sufficiency in vital industries (see below) and the potential for increased nationalist sentiment may lead to the resurgence of mercantilism. This is tantamount to a reversal of globalisation and ‘just-in-time’ logistics strategies which emphasised efficiency over resilience. The overall effect is to increase the cost of goods and services, again, first impacting the poor – such as artists - and leaving even less money for discretionary spending on such things as the arts.
Governments will focus spending on ‘resilience’ measures in domestic economies, in particular construction, education infrastructure, health care, and developing ‘security’ i.e. domestic manufacturing of essential consumer goods, med tech security, water security, food security, energy security and national security.
Cultural agencies could potentially translate this focus on security to advocate for cultural security.
Spending on arts will probably vary by country (and political leader) – in some countries, even when government spending is increasing as % of GDP, arts spending won’t necessarily also increase – funding may be diverted to capital spending and construction (due to its flow-on effect to other parts of the economy) and ‘security’ (see above).
In countries where the arts are politically weak, budget cuts or stagnation in the arts are likely, with a renewed push towards financial sustainability of artists and arts organisations. Those most affected will be areas already experiencing some aspect of market failure, such as artistic process and development, First Nations arts, gender, disability and cultural diversity (e.g. BAME, CALD, PoC) inequalities. The flipside is that these may result in distinctive niches able to cut through a crowded digital landscape should they be supported by digital capacity-building initiatives.
Post-COVID restrictions will cost money – similar to the ‘flat tax’ pressure of inflation - with a disproportionately greater burden upon venues with little space and lower income, such as smaller theatres.
Many economies are being forced to experiment, or continue their experiment with, Modern Monetary Theory, which conjectures, amongst other things, a much higher limit of indebtedness for nations with their own, fiat currency, and advocates a universal basic income (UBI). UBI’s are popular in the arts community, as they are seen as a way for artists to make their art without the burden of economic pressure.

Political context

Post-COVID, we expect to see polarising political change with some countries moving towards more extreme parochialism, and yet others moving towards social-democratic models. High debt will mean an ongoing risk of nation-state default and even nation-state failure.
Economic pressure will lead to political uncertainty in many nation states leading to a strong domestic policy focus.
Authoritarian governments will seek to further restrict private freedoms, including artistic expression.
Governments at political risk may use COVID-19 to distract their populous from their own short-comings with easy political scapegoats.
Arts and culture will have a critical role to play in counteracting some of the negative effects of the potential rise in extreme parochialism, as well as any instability caused by a potential uptick in crime post-COVID, and bringing people together locally to re-build a sense of solidarity and unified local/national/international identity.

Environmental context

Climate change should return to the forefront of activist agendas post-COVID, especially highlighting potential links between unsustainable environmental practices and the transmission of COVID to humans.
Investment in ‘Green tech’ is one avenue for energy-dependent states to invest public expenditure seeking to increase self-sufficiency. Counter to this, governments dependent upon fossil fuel exports may choose policies that stimulate their economies in the short-term, favouring environmentally unfriendly policies. In either case, these initiatives will tend to compete for public expenditure on the arts.
Arts and cultural agencies will have a role in managing their carbon footprint, which may further reduce international exchange, and encourage digitally-assisted cultural exchange. (See below, Technological context)

Social context

The pandemic will refocus government spending upon public health, but many Western societies are aging, meaning an increased proportion of government spending away from other areas, including the arts. This means opportunities for arts spending in these economies are likely to be in ‘Art and Healthy Ageing’ and ‘Art and Wellbeing’, including ‘Art and Mental Health’ in countries expecting an uptick in rates of suicide as unemployment rises.
Inequities will rise in relation to access to arts experiences as arts companies focus on their higher-net worth individual audience members (e.g. expensive ticketed shows for the wealthier patrons, whilst everyone else can watch online). Some companies and governments will attempt to address equity of access via digital access, but this will sometimes be an inadequate substitute and even reinforce digital inequities.
Inequity is also set to rise between richer and poorer countries globally, as richer countries focus on domestic spending and poorer countries are unable to access the kind of monetary policies which support that kind of spending. Likewise, many emerging economies borrow in US dollars, leaving them subject to US monetary policy. It is natural for the US to defend its own interests prior to others. All of the above may lead to more geopolitical unrest.
We have already seen ‘scapegoating’ behaviours against people of East Asian-descent. This will increase as economic pressures increase, and may need national and local cultural funding and programs to stabilise social relations.
There will be a ‘lost generation’ of artists from this period, much as we saw in the wake of the 90’s recession, only this time more severe.
An enduring ‘work-from-home’ culture – perhaps not as strong as it is under lockdown, but much higher than it was before the pandemic – as well as cash-strapped bottom lines will likely mean a fall in commercial property values, especially in city centres. This could lead to a ‘donut’-effect as workers seek cheaper, more pleasant dwellings (‘sea’ and ‘tree-changers’), further from the city, but with good Internet connections. The resulting vacuum could provide an opportunity for artists and arts organisations to return to city centres, occupying repurposed commercial spaces. Similar to the ‘warehouse-conversions’ and ‘New York loft style’ of the 80’s and 90’s, this movement is likely to define a new architectural style and cachet.

Cultural context

Possible rise of nationalism post-COVID may lead to shifts in national cultural identities. Arts and culture will be important in defining these identities. Politics will determine whether arts and culture is funded to support diverse identities or promote mainstream identities.
Arts advocates are talking about how artists can re-imagine the future. We hope to see this happening, and government agency support for this kind of activity. This pandemic will live on in the cultural landscape for generations, marking a defining global event on a scale similar to the World Wars. The arts will be crucial to how we manage the trauma and how we redefine ourselves into the future.
Arts for mental health and wellbeing may gain more momentum as we see an uptick in suicide and mental health issues post-COVID and with growth in unemployment. Arts in health promotion might also gain support.
Arts higher education – another important alternative source of income for artists in addition to the creative industries - will probably be affected by loss of income in higher education institutions which have been impacted by a loss of international students. There are opportunities for known brands in higher education (e.g. The Sorbonne, RADA, The Julliard School etc) to offer international, online programs, thus cutting on-costs and reaching more markets, perhaps offering local, in-person small group activity at a premium. This could negatively impact each country’s local arts education providers but may also create opportunities for niche ‘in-person’ education.
Commercial arts sectors (e.g. popular music, musical theatre) may need government support to regain financial footing. This may affect the funding available to smaller arts companies/artists but could also be leveraged for greater value visibility.
The lack of cultural and social activities during lockdown will drive a greater appreciation for the social, live and tactile. Those who can afford to, will spend more on these, using them as a status indicator.
The focus on domestic spending will probably curtail international exchange for some time, so cultural ministries could use the time to develop digital forms of intercultural exchange.
Cultural tourism and live attendances have also been disproportionately affected due to the combination of social-distancing and international travel restrictions. As these restrictions ease, or pragmatic solutions arise to permit air travel, in the absence of additional funding to address inequities, most major arts companies will need to concentrate efforts upon attracting fewer, higher-value patrons (see Societal context).

Technological context

Acceleration of digital trends has occurred due to lockdown restrictions. Whilst some of these trends may recede as lockdowns ease, many will persist or at least not return to levels pre-COVID.
The lifting of restrictions on online health, and sudden need for online education, may lead countries to improve their internet capabilities to overcome digital access inequities. This may have a flow-on effect and improve digital access to arts and the quality of digital arts experiences.
The increased flow of digital data may lead to increased data security risks. This may have unintended consequences for freedom of speech and privacy, copyright and intellectual property. Each of these have bearing upon artistic expression and its monetisation.
Digital acceleration means increased digital content supply compared to demand, especially post-lockdown. In this environment of digital abundance, those artists and arts organisations that have a dominant brand or well-defined niche will be able to be heard above the noise and stand to prosper when restrictions recede.
As described in earlier BYP Group blogposts, in the arts, many smaller arts organisations and artists may evolve towards a hybrid online/offline model, in which they attract audience or increase awareness through digital means, focusing upon a niche expertise or aesthetic, and monetising said interest through non-digitally replicable goods or services, e.g. merchandise, live performances (charging more for ‘super-fans’). Examples of this can be seen in arts and cultural sector with the Orchestra of the Age of Enlightenment’s YouTube channel.
At the other end of the scale, cultural institutions wishing to raise income whilst restrictions in public gatherings apply, can focus upon higher value, smaller group clients in niche areas of expertise. Examples of niche expertise in cultural institutions can be seen around the British Museum’s ‘Curator’s Corner’ on their YouTube channel. Interest in these niche specialties could be monetised through increased small group workshops and guided, study tours. (This may lead to social inequities – see Societal Context).
Some cultural institutions will be under pressure to digitise their collections for the purposes of access and equity. In business terms, this digitisation may reduce overall numbers of visitors, but increase the value of those who do decide to visit or donate.
Many cultural organisations simply will not survive this downturn. Whilst devastating, this will be an opportunity for those that survive and those that arise to reconsider their business models afresh, along post-Internet lines. In the creative industries, the Internet and accompanying technological improvements have generally favoured smaller businesses (with the exception of a handful of large ‘aggregators’) with organisations in between these two poles such as national mastheads and commercial broadcast networks declining. This trend encourages and enables niche, lean businesses (e.g. individual artists) that have strong digital skills and a compelling niche offering to flourish in a post-COVID world.

[1] https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO

[2] E.g. Nouriel Roubini